Transmission Dynamics Model of Coronavirus COVID-19 for the Outbreak in Most Affected Countries of the World.

Muhammad Dur-e-Ahmad; Mudassar Imran

doi:10.9781/ijimai.2020.04.001

Authors

Muhammad Dur-e-Ahmad University of Waterloo
Mudassar Imran Gulf University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.9781/ijimai.2020.04.001

Keywords:

Sensitivity, Coronavirus COVID-19, Basic Reproductive Number

Abstract

The wide spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) has threatened millions of lives and damaged the economy worldwide. Due to the severity and damage caused by the disease, it is very important to fore-tell the epidemic lifetime in order to take timely actions. Unfortunately, the lack of accurate information and unavailability of large amount of data at this stage make the task more difficult. In this paper, we used the available data from the mostly affected countries by COVID-19, (China, Iran, South Korea and Italy) and fit this with the SEIR type model in order to estimate the basic reproduction number R_0. We also discussed the development trend of the disease. Our model is quite accurate in predicting the current pattern of the infected population. We also performed sensitivity analysis on all the parameters used that are affecting the value of R0.

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